• Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice
  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice
24/7 Health News
No Result
View All Result
Home Article

COVID in 2023 and beyond – why virus trends are more difficult to predict three years on

December 28, 2022
in Article
COVID in 2023 and beyond – why virus trends are more difficult to predict three years on

epic_images/Shutterstock

In 2020, we knew very little about the novel virus that was to become known as COVID-19. Now, as we enter 2023, a search of Google Scholar produces around five million results containing the term.

So how will the pandemic be felt in 2023? This question is in some ways impossible to answer, given a number of unknowns. In early 2020 the scientific community was focused on determining key parameters that could be used to make projections as to the severity and extent of the spread of the virus. Now, the complex interplay of COVID variants, vaccination and natural immunity makes that process far more difficult and less predictable.

But this doesn’t mean there’s room for complacency. The proportion of people estimated to be infected has varied over time, but this figure has not fallen below 1.25% (or one in 80 people) in England for the entirety of 2022. COVID is very much still with us, and people are being infected time and time again.

Meanwhile, the number of people self-reporting long COVID symptoms in the UK is around 3.4%, or one in 30 people. And the cumulative risk of acquiring long COVID grows the more times people are reinfected with COVID.

The UK’s health system is under huge pressure, with very high pre-COVID waiting times having been exacerbated during the pandemic.

Table of Contents

  • Why COVID projections have become harder
  • The pandemic is not over
  • Beyond 2023 – the next pandemic

Why COVID projections have become harder

During the early days of the pandemic, simple models could be used to project the number of COVID cases and the likely effect on the population, including demands for health care.

Relatively few variables were needed to produce the first projections. That was because there was one main variant of COVID, the original strain, to which everyone in the world was susceptible.

But now, those simple assumptions no longer hold. Much of the world’s population is estimated to have had COVID and there are significant differences between individual levels of protection in terms of which vaccines, and how many doses, people have received around the world. In total, 13 billion vaccine doses have been administered – but not equitably.

Modelling also works well when people act in ways that are predictable, whether this is normal, pre-pandemic behaviour, or at times of severe social restrictions. As people adapt to the virus and make their own assessment of risk and benefits of behaviour, modelling becomes more complex.




Read more:
Six unknown factors in coronavirus models and how they could affect predictions


A reduction in surveillance also makes modelling more difficult. During the peak of the emergency response to COVID this was a priority, including surveillance of people with the virus, and surveillance of variants. This allowed new variants such as omicron to be identified early and responses to be prepared.

The UK in particular produced two million COVID sequences up to February 2022, accounting for one-quarter of the world’s genome sequencing output. But sequencing activity has subsequently decreased, which may increase the time it takes to identify new variants of concern.

The pandemic is not over

There remain big differences in pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions in place around the world, for example the use of masks, COVID testing and building ventilation. As governments loosen and at times re-tighten their responses to react to dynamic medical and social pressures, there is a risk that variants could emerge which evade some of the defences that populations have built up.

The next stages of the pandemic will also be influenced by people’s behaviour. For instance, how much we work from home and whether we reduce our social contacts when infectious.

There’s no certainty that new variants will emerge that have an effect in the order of delta or omicron, but it is possible. Should this occur, it’s important that plans are in place to respond in the context of waning interest in COVID and resurgent misinformation and disinformation.

An illustration of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
The evolution of the virus can make modelling more difficult.
Kateryna Kon/Shytterstock

Beyond 2023 – the next pandemic

It’s pertinent to ask how much learning has taken place during the COVID pandemic to improve the response to the next pandemic.

During this pandemic, we’ve often seen short-term national interests prioritised, with a focus on national responses to vaccine equity while discounting the long-term global availability of vaccines. While laudable initiatives such as Covax were established, conceived to provide equitable access to COVID vaccines and treatments, the challenge is to design incentives for nations to cooperate to reduce long-term global risks.




Read more:
Coronavirus: we’ve had ‘Imperial’, ‘Oxford’ and many more models – but none can have all the answers


As with any political response, the priorities of the emergency phase can all too easily be forgotten, such as governments’ abilities to manufacture vaccines. The UK government’s sale of the Vaccine Manufacturing and Innovation Centre is an example of this. Capacity to develop and produce vaccines quickly would stand us in good stead for the next pandemic, but these priorities now have to compete against others that are more immediate or politically expedient.

The UK’s COVID inquiry is bound to be presented with thousands of pages of evidence, with many submissions giving clear, self-consistent accounts of “lessons learned”. Whether those lessons are put into practice is another matter entirely.

The Conversation

Duncan Robertson is a member of Independent SAGE.

ShareTweetSharePin
Next Post
COVID and your gut: how a healthy microbiome can reduce the severity of infection – and vice versa

COVID and your gut: how a healthy microbiome can reduce the severity of infection – and vice versa

Most Read

What causes stuttering? A speech pathology researcher explains the science and the misconceptions around this speech disorder

What causes stuttering? A speech pathology researcher explains the science and the misconceptions around this speech disorder

December 15, 2022
morning back pain

Morning Again Ache Trigger Is Not the Mattress

October 11, 2021

4 steps to building a healthier relationship with your phone

January 28, 2025

Why Circadian Rhythms Matter for Your Health

July 30, 2024
lower back pain relief exercises

5 decrease again ache aid workouts

October 11, 2021
Nasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work

Nasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work

December 14, 2022
bleeding in gum

When The Bleeding in gum Is Severe ?

October 11, 2021
Good Night Sleep

6 Causes of Good Evening Sleep

October 11, 2021
3 years after legalization, we have shockingly little information about how it changed cannabis use and health harms

3 years after legalization, we have shockingly little information about how it changed cannabis use and health harms

October 15, 2021
Kick up your heels – ballroom dancing offers benefits to the aging brain and could help stave off dementia

Kick up your heels – ballroom dancing offers benefits to the aging brain and could help stave off dementia

January 3, 2023
Biden is getting prostate cancer treatment, but that’s not the best choice for all men − a cancer researcher describes how she helped her father decide

Biden is getting prostate cancer treatment, but that’s not the best choice for all men − a cancer researcher describes how she helped her father decide

May 20, 2025
Ten small changes you can make today to prevent weight gain

Ten small changes you can make today to prevent weight gain

October 12, 2021

COVID vaccines: how one can pace up rollout in poorer international locations

October 5, 2021

Maximize Your Performance – Sync with Your Circadian Rhythms

August 9, 2024
Five ways to avoid pain and injury when starting a new exercise regime

Five ways to avoid pain and injury when starting a new exercise regime

December 30, 2022

This Simple Hygiene Habit Could Cut Your Risk of Stroke, New Research Reveals

February 1, 2025

Multiple sclerosis: the link with earlier infection just got stronger – new study

October 12, 2021
Support and collaboration with health-care providers can help people make health decisions

Support and collaboration with health-care providers can help people make health decisions

December 16, 2021
Greece to make COVID vaccines mandatory for over-60s, but do vaccine mandates work?

Greece to make COVID vaccines mandatory for over-60s, but do vaccine mandates work?

December 1, 2021
woman covered with white blanket

Exploring the Impact of Sleep Patterns on Mental Health

August 4, 2024
Nurses’ attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination for their children are highly influenced by partisanship, a new study finds

Nurses’ attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination for their children are highly influenced by partisanship, a new study finds

December 2, 2022
News of war can impact your mental health — here’s how to cope

Binge-eating disorder is more common than many realise, yet it’s rarely discussed – here’s what you need to know

December 2, 2022
FDA limits access to COVID-19 vaccine to older adults and other high-risk groups – a public health expert explains the new rules

FDA limits access to COVID-19 vaccine to older adults and other high-risk groups – a public health expert explains the new rules

May 21, 2025
As viral infections skyrocket, masks are still a tried-and-true way to help keep yourself and others safe

As viral infections skyrocket, masks are still a tried-and-true way to help keep yourself and others safe

December 14, 2022
GPs don’t give useful weight-loss advice – new study

GPs don’t give useful weight-loss advice – new study

December 16, 2022
Four ways to avoid gaining weight over the festive period – but also why you shouldn’t fret about it too much

Four ways to avoid gaining weight over the festive period – but also why you shouldn’t fret about it too much

December 22, 2022
Nutrition advice is rife with misinformation − a medical education specialist explains how to tell valid health information from pseudoscience

Nutrition advice is rife with misinformation − a medical education specialist explains how to tell valid health information from pseudoscience

January 28, 2025
How hot is too hot for the human body? Our lab found heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize

How hot is too hot for the human body? Our lab found heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize

July 6, 2022
How regulatory agencies, not the courts, are imposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

How regulatory agencies, not the courts, are imposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

October 24, 2021
The promise of repairing bones and tendons with human-made materials

The promise of repairing bones and tendons with human-made materials

January 4, 2022
  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer

© 2020 DAILY HEALTH NEWS

  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice

© 2020 DAILY HEALTH NEWS