• Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice
Podcast
  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice
24/7 Health News
No Result
View All Result
Home Article

Pollen season is getting longer and more intense with climate change – here’s what allergy sufferers can expect in the future

March 15, 2022
in Article
0
Pollen season is getting longer and more intense with climate change – here’s what allergy sufferers can expect in the future
file 20220315 99009 sispwj
Ragweed pollen, instigator of headaches and itchy eyes across the U.S. Bob Sacha/Corbis Documentary via Getty Images

Brace yourselves, allergy suffers – new research shows pollen season is going to get a lot longer and more intense with climate change.

Our latest study finds that the U.S. will face up to a 200% increase in total pollen this century if the world continues producing carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles, power plants and other sources at a high rate. Pollen season in general will start up to 40 days earlier in the spring and last up to 19 days longer than today under that scenario.

As atmospheric scientists, we study how the atmosphere and climate affect trees and plants. While most studies focus on pollen overall, we zoomed in on more than a dozen different types of grasses and trees and how their pollen will affect regions across the U.S. in different ways. For example, species like oak and cypress will give the Northeast the biggest increase, but allergens will be on the rise just about everywhere, with consequences for human health and the economy.

6 maps showing differences in how types of plant pollen seasons will change. Ambrosia, better known as ragweed, has the greatest increase.
The maps on the left show the recent average pollen season length in days for three types of plants: platanus, or plane trees, such as sycamores; betula, or birch; and ambrosia, or ragweed. The maps on the right show the expected changes in total days by the end of the century if carbon dioxide emissions continue at a high rate.
Zhang and Steiner, 2022

If your head is pounding at just the thought of it, we also have some good news, at least for knowing in advance when pollen waves are coming. We’re working on using the model from this study to develop more accurate local pollen forecasts.

Table of Contents

  • Why pollen is increasing
  • Pollen changes will vary by region
  • Silver lining: We can improve pollen forecasting
  • Pollen levels are already on the rise

Why pollen is increasing

Let’s start with the basics. Pollen – the dust-like grains produced by grasses and plants – contains the male genetic material for a plant’s reproduction.

How much pollen is produced depends on how the plant grows. Rising global temperatures will boost plant growth in many areas, and that, in turn, will affect pollen production. But temperature is only part of the equation. We found that the bigger driver of the future pollen increase will be rising carbon dioxide emissions.

The higher temperature will extend the growing season, giving plants more time to emit pollen and reproduce. Carbon dioxide, meanwhile, fuels photosynthesis, so plants may grow larger and produce more pollen. We found that carbon dioxide levels may have a much larger impact on pollen increases than temperature in the future.

Dust-like pollen falls from pine cones
Cones on a Norway Spruce in Virginia release pollen.
Famartin/Wikimedia, CC BY-ND

Pollen changes will vary by region

We looked at 15 different pollen types, rather than treating all pollen the same as many past studies have.

Typically, pollination starts with leafy deciduous trees in late winter and spring. Alder, birch and oak are the three top deciduous trees for causing allergies, though there are others, like mulberry. Then grasses come out in the summer, followed by ragweed in late summer. In the Southeast, evergreen trees like mountain cedar and juniper (in the cypress family) start in January. In Texas, “cedar fever” is the equivalent of hay fever.

We found that in the Northeast, pollen seasons for a lot of allergenic trees will increasingly overlap as temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions rise. For example, it used to be that oak trees would release pollen first, and then birch would pollinate. Now we see more overlap of their pollen seasons.

How pollen season spreads across the U.S. over one year. Yingxiao Zhang and Allison Steiner.

In general, pollen season will change more in the north than in the south, because of larger temperature increases in northern areas.

Southeastern regions, including Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, can expect large grass and weed pollen increases in the future. The Pacific Northwest is likely to see peak pollen season a month earlier because of the early pollen season of alder.

Silver lining: We can improve pollen forecasting

Most pollen forecasts right now provide a very broad estimate. Part of the problem is that there aren’t many observing stations for pollen counts. Most are run by allergy clinics, and there are less than 100 of these stations distributed across the country. Michigan, where we live, doesn’t have any.

It’s a very labor-intensive process to actually measure different types of pollen. As a result, current forecasts have a lot of uncertainties. These likely are based in part on what a station has observed in the past and the weather forecast.

A person's hands jostle a pine branch to collect pollen
Pollen sampling for regional forecasts can be labor-intensive.
HelenaAnna/Wikimedia, CC BY-ND

Our model, if integrated into a forecasting framework, could provide more targeted pollen forecasts across the country.

We can estimate where the trees are from satellite data and on-the-ground surveys. We also know how temperature influences when pollen comes out – what we call the phenology of the pollen. With that information, we can use meteorological factors like wind, relative humidity and precipitation to figure out how much pollen gets into the air, and atmospheric models can show how it moves and blows around, to create a real-time forecast.

All of that information allows us to look at where pollen might be in space and time, so people dealing with allergies will know what’s coming in their area.

We’re currently talking with a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lab about ways to integrate that information into a tool for air quality forecasting.

Dozens of round, spiky pollen grains attached to a plant
Ragweed pollen grains, magnified and colorized.
Bob Sacha/Corbis Documentary via Getty Images

There are still some unknowns when it comes to long-term pollen projections. For example, scientists don’t fully understand why plants produce more pollen in some years than others. There’s not a good way to include that in models. It’s also not fully clear how plants will respond if carbon dioxide levels go through the roof. Ragweed and residential trees are also hard to capture. There are very few ragweed surveys showing where these plants are growing in the U.S., but that can be improved.

Pollen levels are already on the rise

A study in 2021 found that the overall pollen season was already about 20 days longer in North America than it was in 1990 and pollen concentrations were up about 21%.

Increasing pollen levels in the future will have a much broader impact than a few sniffles and headaches. Seasonal allergies affect about 30% of the population, and they have economic impacts, from health costs to missed working days.

[Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world. Sign up today.]

The Conversation

Allison L. Steiner has received funding from NSF, NASA, DOE, and NOAA. She is currently a member of the NASEM Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.

Yingxiao Zhang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ShareTweetSharePin
Previous Post

What you do every day matters: The power of routines

Next Post

Do contact-tracing apps have a future?

Next Post
Do contact-tracing apps have a future?

Do contact-tracing apps have a future?

Most Read

What causes stuttering? A speech pathology researcher explains the science and the misconceptions around this speech disorder

What causes stuttering? A speech pathology researcher explains the science and the misconceptions around this speech disorder

December 15, 2022
morning back pain

Morning Again Ache Trigger Is Not the Mattress

October 11, 2021
lower back pain relief exercises

5 decrease again ache aid workouts

October 11, 2021
3 years after legalization, we have shockingly little information about how it changed cannabis use and health harms

3 years after legalization, we have shockingly little information about how it changed cannabis use and health harms

October 15, 2021
Nasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work

Nasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work

December 14, 2022
bleeding in gum

When The Bleeding in gum Is Severe ?

October 11, 2021
Good Night Sleep

6 Causes of Good Evening Sleep

October 11, 2021

COVID vaccines: how one can pace up rollout in poorer international locations

October 5, 2021
Ten small changes you can make today to prevent weight gain

Ten small changes you can make today to prevent weight gain

October 12, 2021
Support and collaboration with health-care providers can help people make health decisions

Support and collaboration with health-care providers can help people make health decisions

December 16, 2021
Greece to make COVID vaccines mandatory for over-60s, but do vaccine mandates work?

Greece to make COVID vaccines mandatory for over-60s, but do vaccine mandates work?

December 1, 2021

Multiple sclerosis: the link with earlier infection just got stronger – new study

October 12, 2021
News of war can impact your mental health — here’s how to cope

Binge-eating disorder is more common than many realise, yet it’s rarely discussed – here’s what you need to know

December 2, 2022
Nurses’ attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination for their children are highly influenced by partisanship, a new study finds

Nurses’ attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination for their children are highly influenced by partisanship, a new study finds

December 2, 2022
Kick up your heels – ballroom dancing offers benefits to the aging brain and could help stave off dementia

Kick up your heels – ballroom dancing offers benefits to the aging brain and could help stave off dementia

January 3, 2023
How hot is too hot for the human body? Our lab found heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize

How hot is too hot for the human body? Our lab found heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize

July 6, 2022
The promise of repairing bones and tendons with human-made materials

The promise of repairing bones and tendons with human-made materials

January 4, 2022
As viral infections skyrocket, masks are still a tried-and-true way to help keep yourself and others safe

As viral infections skyrocket, masks are still a tried-and-true way to help keep yourself and others safe

December 14, 2022
How regulatory agencies, not the courts, are imposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

How regulatory agencies, not the courts, are imposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

October 24, 2021
Heart disease risk from saturated fats may depend on what foods they come from – new research

Heart disease risk from saturated fats may depend on what foods they come from – new research

November 29, 2021
Late night eating may cause greater weight gain – new research points to why

Late night eating may cause greater weight gain – new research points to why

October 12, 2022

10 Things I Learned During My Body Transformation

October 12, 2021

7 Health Benefits of Sweet Potatoes

October 12, 2021
Nobel prize: how chilli peppers helped researchers uncover how humans feel pain

Nobel prize: how chilli peppers helped researchers uncover how humans feel pain

October 12, 2021
How air filters can make COVID wards safer for patients and staff

How air filters can make COVID wards safer for patients and staff

December 1, 2021
GPs don’t give useful weight-loss advice – new study

GPs don’t give useful weight-loss advice – new study

December 16, 2022
Four ways to avoid gaining weight over the festive period – but also why you shouldn’t fret about it too much

Four ways to avoid gaining weight over the festive period – but also why you shouldn’t fret about it too much

December 22, 2022
Five ways to avoid pain and injury when starting a new exercise regime

Five ways to avoid pain and injury when starting a new exercise regime

December 30, 2022
Why suicide prevention support is crucial for people with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder

Why suicide prevention support is crucial for people with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder

September 28, 2022
Too hot to handle: Climate considerations for youth sport during the hottest years on record

Too hot to handle: Climate considerations for youth sport during the hottest years on record

July 19, 2022
  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer

© 2020 DAILY HEALTH NEWS

  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice

© 2020 DAILY HEALTH NEWS