• Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice
Podcast
  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice
24/7 Health News
No Result
View All Result
Home Article

Three years on, the COVID pandemic may never end – but the public health impact is becoming more manageable

March 10, 2023
in Article
0
Three years on, the COVID pandemic may never end – but the public health impact is becoming more manageable
file 20230222 28 sz9okn

Antonie S/Shutterstock

Three years ago, on March 11 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus first formally described COVID-19 as a pandemic.

The impact of the pandemic on all aspects of society has been enormous, but we’ve come a long way since March 2020. The toll of this novel coronavirus has been blunted thanks to responses across science, healthcare and public health.

At this point, it’s not unreasonable to wonder when the pandemic will be over. But the WHO continues to regard COVID as a pandemic. Let’s take a look back at how we got here and explore where we might be heading.




Read more:
How will the COVID pandemic end?


Table of Contents

  • First, what actually is a pandemic?
  • A transition point
  • How did other pandemics end?

First, what actually is a pandemic?

The term “pandemic” can have slightly different definitions depending on where you look. However, perhaps the most common use of the term applies to an emerging threat that is spreading across multiple countries: “an epidemic occurring worldwide”.

Essentially, a pandemic is one level above a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The WHO declared COVID a PHEIC (pronounced “fake”) on January 30, 2020.

A PHEIC, as defined in the International Health Regulations, is “an extraordinary event” where there’s a risk of international disease spread, and which might require a coordinated international response. Previous examples include the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, the 2016 emergence of the Zika virus, and the 2022 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak.

Interestingly though, in contrast to a PHEIC, the WHO doesn’t have the power to officially declare the start or end of a pandemic. This is because the term is not a category in the International Health Regulations, an important legal instrument. However, the WHO’s labelling of COVID as a pandemic carries a lot of weight and it has become widely regarded as such.

Emergency committees may decide what constitutes a pandemic versus a PHEIC based on factors including the severity of the disease, its mode of transmission, and its impact on nations.

A transition point

On January 30 2023, exactly three years after the PHEIC declaration, the WHO released a new statement indicating that COVID should still be regarded as a PHEIC, but noting that “the COVID-19 pandemic is probably at a transition point”. This recognises the fact that high levels of immunity to COVID are now limiting its impact.

The transition point refers to the de-escalation of COVID as a PHEIC, which some have speculated may happen in April. Indeed, Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in December 2022 that the WHO was hopeful that “we will be able to say that COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency” at in some point in 2023.

This shift would lessen available funding and international co-ordination. This must be balanced alongside appropriate action that considers the continuing burden of COVID, recognising that each country will be at a different stage of their pandemic management.

A pregnant woman receives a vaccination.
Vaccines changed the course of the pandemic.
Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

In that statement, there’s continued reference to an ongoing “pandemic”. This is not unreasonable, as COVID really continues to meet any commonly used definition. There is, and will be for the foreseeable future, sustained transmission across multiple countries alongside a significant burden of hospitalisations and deaths. Therefore, we may end up in the situation where there is technically an ongoing pandemic despite a declared end to the PHEIC. Such are the difficulties in defining the different stages of a global crises.

There are still around 150,000 confirmed cases globally each day, with many more not being recorded as real-time data management is relaxed across most countries.

Nations such as China have reported numerous outbreaks across late 2022 and early 2023, with significant impact on their health services. Long COVID will continue to affect millions of people.

The extensive misinformation from influential anti-vaccination activists continues to be a problem, with the WHO citing the need to “address the infodemic”.

So despite the incredible success of the COVID vaccines, and other public health efforts to bring outbreaks largely under control, the pandemic isn’t yet past tense. We are, however, moving out of the emergency response phase.

How did other pandemics end?

There was a declared and definitive end to the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic. This was a little easier due to the seasonal influenza patterns, something we don’t see with COVID.

Although real-time surveillance would have been limited, there were also relatively clear ends to the influenza pandemics of 1918–1919 and 1957–1958.

The precise ends to pandemics further back in history such as the Black Death in the 14th century and the large-scale outbreak of smallpox in the 16th century are unclear, but ultimately defined from retrospective reporting in the history books, rather than scientific committees.




Read more:
COVID treatments and prevention are still improving – so the longer you can avoid it the better


It’s somewhat easier to declare a new PHEIC or define the start of pandemic, compared with the end. If the outbreak simply does not end, then declaring a time point at which “it’s over” is understandably tricky.

As the WHO indicate in their recent statement, there needs to be a continued focus on COVID beyond any defined end of the public health emergency. This focus must remain even as countries consider how to mainstream their disease control into more routine public health and health service infrastructure.

The COVID pandemic may never be over. However, the public health threat of this virus should continue to decline. The need to learn lessons from this pandemic ahead of the inevitable next time is essential. History has shown us that infectious diseases have the capacity to evolve and emerge unpredictably. The next pandemic may be just around the corner – and we don’t know which corner.

The Conversation

Michael Head has previously received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development.

ShareTweetSharePin
Previous Post

From grave robbing to giving your own body to science – a short history of where medical schools get cadavers

Next Post

Pregnancy nose isn’t the only weird change your body may go through when you’re expecting

Next Post
Pregnancy nose isn’t the only weird change your body may go through when you’re expecting

Pregnancy nose isn’t the only weird change your body may go through when you're expecting

Most Read

What causes stuttering? A speech pathology researcher explains the science and the misconceptions around this speech disorder

What causes stuttering? A speech pathology researcher explains the science and the misconceptions around this speech disorder

December 15, 2022
morning back pain

Morning Again Ache Trigger Is Not the Mattress

October 11, 2021
lower back pain relief exercises

5 decrease again ache aid workouts

October 11, 2021
3 years after legalization, we have shockingly little information about how it changed cannabis use and health harms

3 years after legalization, we have shockingly little information about how it changed cannabis use and health harms

October 15, 2021
Nasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work

Nasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work

December 14, 2022
bleeding in gum

When The Bleeding in gum Is Severe ?

October 11, 2021
Good Night Sleep

6 Causes of Good Evening Sleep

October 11, 2021

COVID vaccines: how one can pace up rollout in poorer international locations

October 5, 2021
Ten small changes you can make today to prevent weight gain

Ten small changes you can make today to prevent weight gain

October 12, 2021
Support and collaboration with health-care providers can help people make health decisions

Support and collaboration with health-care providers can help people make health decisions

December 16, 2021
Greece to make COVID vaccines mandatory for over-60s, but do vaccine mandates work?

Greece to make COVID vaccines mandatory for over-60s, but do vaccine mandates work?

December 1, 2021

Multiple sclerosis: the link with earlier infection just got stronger – new study

October 12, 2021
News of war can impact your mental health — here’s how to cope

Binge-eating disorder is more common than many realise, yet it’s rarely discussed – here’s what you need to know

December 2, 2022
Nurses’ attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination for their children are highly influenced by partisanship, a new study finds

Nurses’ attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination for their children are highly influenced by partisanship, a new study finds

December 2, 2022
Kick up your heels – ballroom dancing offers benefits to the aging brain and could help stave off dementia

Kick up your heels – ballroom dancing offers benefits to the aging brain and could help stave off dementia

January 3, 2023
How hot is too hot for the human body? Our lab found heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize

How hot is too hot for the human body? Our lab found heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize

July 6, 2022
The promise of repairing bones and tendons with human-made materials

The promise of repairing bones and tendons with human-made materials

January 4, 2022
As viral infections skyrocket, masks are still a tried-and-true way to help keep yourself and others safe

As viral infections skyrocket, masks are still a tried-and-true way to help keep yourself and others safe

December 14, 2022
How regulatory agencies, not the courts, are imposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

How regulatory agencies, not the courts, are imposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

October 24, 2021
Heart disease risk from saturated fats may depend on what foods they come from – new research

Heart disease risk from saturated fats may depend on what foods they come from – new research

November 29, 2021
Late night eating may cause greater weight gain – new research points to why

Late night eating may cause greater weight gain – new research points to why

October 12, 2022

10 Things I Learned During My Body Transformation

October 12, 2021

7 Health Benefits of Sweet Potatoes

October 12, 2021
Nobel prize: how chilli peppers helped researchers uncover how humans feel pain

Nobel prize: how chilli peppers helped researchers uncover how humans feel pain

October 12, 2021
How air filters can make COVID wards safer for patients and staff

How air filters can make COVID wards safer for patients and staff

December 1, 2021
GPs don’t give useful weight-loss advice – new study

GPs don’t give useful weight-loss advice – new study

December 16, 2022
Four ways to avoid gaining weight over the festive period – but also why you shouldn’t fret about it too much

Four ways to avoid gaining weight over the festive period – but also why you shouldn’t fret about it too much

December 22, 2022
Five ways to avoid pain and injury when starting a new exercise regime

Five ways to avoid pain and injury when starting a new exercise regime

December 30, 2022
Why suicide prevention support is crucial for people with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder

Why suicide prevention support is crucial for people with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder

September 28, 2022
Too hot to handle: Climate considerations for youth sport during the hottest years on record

Too hot to handle: Climate considerations for youth sport during the hottest years on record

July 19, 2022
  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer

© 2020 DAILY HEALTH NEWS

  • Home
  • Health & Wellness
  • Disclaimer
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • DMCA Notice

© 2020 DAILY HEALTH NEWS